A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
